doc. Ing. Július Bemš, Ph.D.

The weather is one of the factors that may have an impact on the countries' economies. There are two main hedging ways against unexpected weather conditions: weather derivatives and weather insurances. During the last two decades, companies started to use weather derivatives against weather issues, especially in the energy and agriculture sectors. Starting from weather derivatives' first launch, their transaction volumes at the exchange and over-the-counter markets have increased. In addition to the increasing dependency of the economies on the weather, providing the weather derivative contracts with a reasonable premium amount is another reason which helps to have this positive trend. Since weather derivatives have similar parameters and rules with classical financial derivatives, it is possible to use the same pricing approaches for financial and weather derivatives. Monte–Carlo simulation, based on random number generation, is one of the existing methods of pricing derivative contracts. A difference between simulated values and really occurred data is the base point of the expected payoff or price of the contract. The current article introduces weather derivatives and shows two different approaches to their pricing, where one of them requires deeper statistical analysis. Adding the statistical analysis into the consideration, defining the relation between each data value, helps to provide better estimation and less volatility. Having less volatility can provide more accurate estimations and reasonable prices that are affordable and desired by the companies.

The efficiency of biomass utilization in a biogas plant, where there is no possibility of using the heat generated by the cogeneration unit, is relatively low and most of the biomass energy content is lost unproductively. One of the ways to increase the efficiency of biomass utilization is to supplement the biogas plant with a technology for upgrading biogas to the quality of natural gas (biomethane production). This almost double the efficiency of biomass use. The paper presents a methodology for evaluating the transformation efficiency of a biogas plant to a biomethane plant in the half of the expected life of a biogas plant. The methodology for calculating the minimum price for biomethane to have an economic incentive for the operator to switch to biomethane production is based on the equality of IRR values for the continuation of the biogas station and for the transformation into biomethane production. For the typical technical and economic parameters of both technologies and for the conditions of support for electricity production in biogas stations, the minimum price of biomethane is based on approx. CZK 21.3 / m3.

This paper is devoted to the description of a new approach for large-scale electric power systems (EPS) simulation, so-called hybrid simulation approach. The design and research of EPS require solving a large number of non-trivial tasks. Due to the well-known EPS specificity, mathematical modeling is the only way to proceed. According to the hybrid approach, several simulation techniques (analogue, digital, and physical) are used to achieve the best results.

Estimation of the used weather index is the key starting point of the analysing and pricing these derivatives’ contracts and lack of stable volatility is the main obstacle to set a model of weather index and perform estimation and pricing. Therefore, the main aim of this article is estimating the wind speed, which can be an underlying asset of weather derivative, according to historical measured data with, time series analysis, autoregression model and Monte Carlo simulations.

The stability of electric power system (EPS) insures energy security of consumers. Therefore, saving the stability of EPS is the main task for professionals around the world. For its solution, a variety of activities is used. This publication deals with the description of the authors' experience for solving the task in the Tyumen power system. The hybrid real-time power system simulator (HRTSim) developed in Tomsk Polytechnic University was used as a platform for research carrying out. The study presents the research result fragments of the momentary and sustained fast turbine valving control (FTVC) which is one of the most effective ways of an automatic emergency control of power units in the thermal power station.

The aim of this paper is to summarize the current status of the EU Electricity Market Integration, especially address the highly discuss issue of Bidding Zones Reconfiguration, analyse proposed criteria for the potential reconfiguration and also discuss possible future development.

The aim of this paper is to introduce methods of solution regarding current issues of electricity markets integration in Europe. The focus is pointed on bidding zones overview and bidding zones reconfiguration process in general, meantime the situation in central Europe is analysed more deeply.

In a blinded, randomized Ultimatum game we study the decision rates using two different reward systems. We discuss the individual value perception and explain why we decided to test a non-monetary reward against the standard low stake monetary reward. We demonstrate that the value sys-tems based on two different, inconvertible currencies lead to different deci-sion rates in the same population. We provide the details of our single blind randomized protocol and discuss other protocol modifications designed to demonstrate the variability of the offer and / or response rates in the Ulti-matum games. We provide our concept of rational, non-rational and irra-tional components contributing to the decision making process in different accord depending on the individual perception of the reward value and confront our experimental findings with the key assumptions provided by other authors.

Aircrew members and passengers are exposed to increased rates of cosmic radiation on-board commercial jet aircraft. The annual effective doses of crew members often exceed limits for public, thus it is recommended to monitor them. In general, the doses are estimated via various computer codes and in some countries also verified by measurements. This paper describes a comparison of three cosmic rays detectors, namely of the (a) HAWK Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter; (b) Liulin semiconductor energy deposit spectrometer and (c) TIMEPIX silicon semiconductor pixel detector, exposed to radiation fields on-board commercial Czech Airlines company jet aircraft. Measurements were performed during passenger flights from Prague to Madrid, Oslo, Tbilisi, Yekaterinburg and Almaty, and back in July and August 2011. For all flights, energy deposit spectra and absorbed doses are presented. Measured absorbed dose and dose equivalent are compared with the EPCARD code calculations. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of all detectors are discussed.

This paper introduces a new scoring method for company default prediction. The method is based on a modified magic square (a spider diagram with four perpendicular axes) which is used to evaluate economic performance of a country. The evaluation is quantified by the area of a polygon, whose vertices are points lying on the axes. The axes represent economic indicators having significant importance for an economic performance evaluation. The proposed method deals with magic square limitations; e.g. an axis zero point not placed in the axes origins,, and extends its usage for an arbitrary (higher than 3) number of variables. This approach is applied on corporations to evaluate their economic performance and identify the companies suspected to default.

Costs related to the decommissioning of nuclear power plants create a significant financial burden for nuclear power plant operators. This article discusses the various methodologies employed by selected European countries for financing of the liabilities related to the nuclear power plant decommissioning. The article also presents methodology of allocation of future decommissioning costs to the running costs of nuclear power plant in the form of fee imposed on each megawatt hour generated. The application of the methodology is presented in the form of a case study on a new nuclear power plant with installed capacity 1000 MW.

Abstract. This article deals with the description of situation in the European electricity markets, which have recently changed dramatically. In recent years these markets have been liberalized and also renewable resources have been widely installed in Europe. In this context we can observe a significant shift of volume of traded elektricity from long-term markets to short-term markets, and also a price reduction of the market price of electricity, but the overall rise in electricity prices for the end customer. In connection with new objectives of the European Union in the field of renewable energy sources it can be assumed that the effects of the integration of renewable energy sources will deepen. One way to cope with the negative effects of the integration of renewable energy sources is a thorough analysis of the power production diagram and also accurate identification of factors that influence the shape of this diagram. Just so we are able to cope with the integration of renewable energy sources, and using this knowledge, for example, we can aggregate these power sources into a single portfolio. This concept is called the concept of „virtual power plant” and is one of the ways to effectively deal with the integration of renewable energy sources.

This paper reviews the approach to funding of nuclear liabilities in four European countries – the Czech Republic, France, Sweden and Switzerland. Each from these countries has its specific system of internal and external funds for decommissioning and waste management.

Nowadays the interest to Smart Grid has increased significantly around the world. Smart Grid is expected to be a future of power grids with possibilities to manage the production, transmission and distribution of electrical energy. The present paper carries out analysis of economic effects by using one of the components of Smart Grid – Ripple Control (RC) Technology.

Paper discusses the different methodologies used by selected European countries for financing of the liabilities related to the nuclear power plant decommissioning. Paper presents methodology of future decommissioning costs allocation as running costs of nuclear power plant in the form of fee imposed to each MWh generated. The application of the methodology is presented in the case study of the new nuclear power plant with installed capacity 1 000 MW.

Brown coal is one of the dominant local strategic raw materials in Europe, used, to a large extent, in the power-generating industry. The current situation, where the price of gas and electricity precludes the efficient use of gas sources, leads to the extraction of older sources, chiefly brown coal ones. In tandem with a turning away from nuclear power, brown coal is experiencing a renaissance and the issue of brown coal price setting is, and will be, relevant. This paper deals with a proposal of a new method for determining the base price, consisting of defining the reference fuel chain for electricity and heat production based on brown coal. It builds on the notion that the degree of risk of the involved parties should be reflected in the modified amount of revenue per capital invested. The resulting price is then an economically justified price which encourages a respect for the specific features of the market in question and set the base price of the commodity in a way that is acceptable for both the extractive and the productive components of the fuel chain.

This paper summarizes the methodological approach used for calculation of fee for low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal and for spent fuel disposal. The methodology itself is based on simulation of cash flows related to the operation of system for waste disposal. The paper includes demonstration of methodology application on the conditions of the Czech Republic.

Currently, electricity from renewable sources has global importance that is supposed to grow in next years. The integration of these resources entails many advantages but in the other hand causes many issues. In the Czech Republic, the most discussed topic of integrated renewable sources is so-called solar boom that occurred in 2009-2010. Setting up the environment caused a large increase in installed capacity in solar power and caused a number of problems, among them reduction of stability or distortions in the electricity market. At first this article seeks to describe and explain the evolution of the situation both in terms of installed capacity and grid and in terms of the electricity market. At second the current situation and small preview of the future is described. This article also outlines some options that could lead to an improvement in the situation (for example, the concept of virtual power plants).

This paper is covering the innovative approach of bankruptcy prediction modeling. The main idea is using modified spider diagram in assessing company conditions and providing regression analysis over this assessment.

The main topic of this paper is research of ancillary services in interconnected European power grid. Physical interconnection and joint market brings us new opportunities in the field of providing ancillary services abroad.

The present work reports on the possibility of costs reduction in energy sector by using Ripple Control (RC) Technology. Application of the RC can lead to optimal use of electrical energy and energy efficiency of the consumption.

This paper shows the real option theory usage with emphasis evaluation in energy sector. It is also comparing standard evaluation methods with real options approach.

This document discusses ability of using artificial intelligence methods in estimating performance of companies with focus on energy sector. There will be presented current state of the problematic and possibilities of extension using new techniques and tools. The main emphasis will be put on creating concept of company health model based on inputs from publicly available information. This includes identifying available data sources, selecting of variables which will be used as inputs in the model.

Intraday electricity markets contribute to facilitate transition from conventional sources to renewables which need to be balanced on realtime basic due to the unpredictable nature of weather. This paper describes the way from regional electricity markets to a single pan-european market model which is target model of the European Commission. Single liquid intraday electricity market where market participants can balance their portfolios is prerequisite to a full utilisation of renewable power sources and a solution for some problems experienced by TSOs with loop and parallel flows from neighbouring countries. Integrated German and French intraday electricity market which uses FITS (Flexible Intraday Trading Scheme) is described in this paper as a market which could be extended further to the CEE region with very poor liquidity of its local intraday markets.

Economic profitability calculation of producing electricity from renewable energy sources in Africa and transportation to Europe.

It is worldwide accepted that nature resources and also climate are crucial for the mankind survival. Therefore there is an urgent need to exploit such energy sources that are not only available and affordable but also eco-friendly and sustainable. It seems that the right answer to this problem may be renewable sources. Our paper therefore focuses on one possible option - Desertec project and analyzes pros and cons of this project. We are also examining the economic aspects of the Desertec project.

This paper compares standard appraisal methods to method based on real options theory. It also extends standard methods by real option theory to achieve complex project valuation in highly volatile economic environment.

Článek pojednává o problémech s řízením přenosové soustavy za současného rozvoje obnovitelných zdrojů a předpokládaných variantách dostavby jaderné elektrárny Temelín.

This paper explains impacts of photovoltaic power plants on electricity price. The boom of building-up of a new photovoltaic power plants peaked by the end of the year 2010 due to the changes in state guaranteed funding scheme. Total installed capacity in photovoltaics is estimated at 2 200 MWp. Due to the high production from the photovoltaic power plants in comparison to electricity consumption, we can expect strong impact of photovoltaics on spot electricity prices. Daily changes in weather conditions meaning changes in irradiation will result in high volatility of electricity prices. This will create new trading opportunities for market participants. Together with the high importance of a meteorologist on the trading floor, profound changes in trading strategies of electricity traders must take place, who will have to be prepared for high volumes of undispatchable electricity, which will have to be sold by any cost.

Zmeny dotačnej schémy pre novo pripojené fotovoltaciké elektrárne, ktoré nastali koncom roku 2010, ukončili veľký rozmach výstavby FVE v ČR. Celkový inštalovaný výkon z fotovoltaických elektrární sa pohybuje okolo 1,8 GWp, čo rozhodne nie je málo a tým pádom môžeme očakávať výrazný vplyv na ceny elektriny. Ovplyvní to stratégie obchodovania, kvôli veľkému objemu nekontrolovateľnej elektriny, ktorá bude musieť byť zobchodovaná. Takisto budú hrať dôležitú rolu aj cezhraničné kapacity, ktoré sa budú využívať efektívnejšie. Bude sa zvyšovať cena podporných služieb a trhy s elektrinou sa stanú likvidnejšie. Pre výskum a kvantifikáciu vyššie uvedených logických a taktiež teoretických predpokladov bol namodelovaný očakávaný hodinový diagram osvitu. V modeli boli zohľadnené štatistické údaje oblačnosti z českého hydrometeorologického ústavu a model taktiež počíta s možnými cezhraničnými kapacitami. Takisto zachycuje situáciu na Česko-Slovenskom trhu, na ktorom prebehol market-coupling.